Our take: Last week, the US Dollar (USD) extended its bearish correction, after the release of macroeconomic data that consolidated expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve (FED). US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflation was in line with market expectations, delivering a soft reading that consolidated the USD’s downtrend. This result apparently overshadowed the expansionary 3Q22 GDP, which reflected a still robust economy and allayed fears of a hard landing in the US. This week, the market awaits the US trade balance result, which is expected to be less deficitary, potentially reflecting an improvement in terms of trade and favoring the USD. However, if manufacturing activity reflects a still contractive sector, through the FED Dallas and the Chicago PMI readings, there could be an extension of the bearish trend for the USD during the week. Weekly holidays and few relevant macroeconomic data, lead us to expect a less volatile USD, with a trading range between 103.7 and 104.8 units.
Tenedores TES: Recomposición de flujos en un mercado condicionado por tasas altas y factores técnicos
En marzo, el mercado de deuda pública local atravesó un proceso de recomposición relevante en la estructura de tenedores. El saldo total de TES se ubicó en COP$747.94 billones, con una reducción marginal de COP$2.96 billones frente a febrero (-0.39% m/m), un movimiento que no responde a una salida estructural de capital, sino a una redistribución de portafolios entre tipos de inversionistas.
