From the beginning of 2026, the trend was also constructive until the recent downturn. January brought in inflows of USD$100.6 billion, and February added another USD$22.4 billion.
For the foreign exchange market, the surprise in the March data and the expectation of a more restrictive monetary policy for a longer period of time end up strengthening
Since the end of February, the behavior of the global foreign exchange market has been dominated by the deteriorating geopolitical environment and its impact on expectations.
In Latin America, not all currencies face the global dollar cycle from the same position. The difference lies in the position of a currency that experiences adjustments.
Legislative elections do not systematically move the exchange rate, but when they alter the perception of governance and fiscal risk, the adjustment can be significant.
The forward curve is not signaling immediate instability, but neither is it validating an environment of structural exchange rate easing. In the short term,
The sustainability of the USD/COP exchange rate at levels close to COP$3,600 will depend critically on the persistence of the flows that have dominated the market in recent times.
