This week's focus will be on the Fed's decision, where there is broad global consensus for a 25bp rate hike, with a message from the board members that should aim for a gradual normalization of monetary conditions going forward. The updated expectations for both GDP and interest rates in the short and medium term (dot plot) are capturing investors' attention. In Colombia, we will be closely watching the Banrep decision, where there is broad consensus that the board will not make any changes to its monetary policy. Therefore, we do not expect any changes to the interest rate, which is expected to remain at 4.25%..See more
Inflation and exchange rate: Inflation surprises and resumes upward pressure: How does the TRM interpret it?
For the foreign exchange market, the surprise in the March data and the expectation of a more restrictive monetary policy for a longer period have strengthened one of the currency's main structural supports: the carry channel. This feature continues to give the Colombian peso significant appeal, particularly in an environment where the global dollar has lost some momentum, but the selection process within Latin America has become more demanding.
