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Weekly Fixed Income Outlook January 25, 2022

stocks and shares

The curves reflect pessimistic scenarios and await opportunities starting in 2Q22..

We believe the curves currently largely discount a pessimistic scenario and maintain high interest rates due to political uncertainty. Thus, in the current context, a scenario similar to that observed in the Treasury bond market at the end of 2015 is emerging, where rising inflation led to interest rate increases and the Central Bank reacted by following the inflation. However, midway through the contractionary cycle, Treasury bonds incorporated all of the increases and provided room for appreciation. This, along with a stressed exchange rate, attracted foreign interest and initiated a cycle of exchange rate appreciation and purchases in Treasury bonds.

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