Weekly Fixed Income Outlook February 01

Public Debt: Treasury yields appreciated following better-than-expected results from several macroeconomic indicators, the most important of which was preliminary Q4 GDP, which came in at 2,9% Q4 vs. 2,6% Q4 expected. This reinforces the narrative of a soft landing, based on the fact that the Fed's hike cycle is nearing its end. The market expects Jerome Powell's tone to be dovish, given signs of declining inflation and labor costs.

In Colombia, the TESTF curve closed the week with average gains of 28 bps across the curve, following the international driver and increasing appetite for the long end of the curve. Furthermore, we observe that the short end of the curve could steepen in the coming weeks. On the other hand, in relative terms, we see greater value in short-term UVR TES Bonds due to their interest rate level and the seasonality of inflation in 1Q23.

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