Monthly Market Outlook – September 2025

Monthly Macroeconomic Outlook

• Global markets are experiencing moderate and mixed growth, with divergent monetary policies seeking to balance price stability and economic support. Monetary policy easing is being observed in the context of a slowdown in employment, while other economies maintain restrictive policies in the face of persistent inflationary pressures. The recovery is gradual, with resilient export sectors and weak domestic demand, and risks include trade tensions, fiscal uncertainty, and structural factors that could affect macroeconomic stability.

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Fixed Income Monthly Outlook

• Bond markets anticipate a squeeze in short-term bonds and high premiums in long-term bonds, driven by fiscal and duration risks. The strategy focuses on intermediate duration bonds due to their balance between carry and rolldown, with tactically managed ultra-long-term bonds, complementing the portfolio with inflation-linked instruments and short-term corporate debt.

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Monthly Equity Outlook

• The global stock market begins August in a phase of adjustment, with greater selectivity and sector rotations. The bullish bias toward year-end is supported by rate cuts and energy stability, while the COLCAP stands out for its attractive valuations and domestic strength, although risks from inflation, trade, and external volatility persist.

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Monthly Outlook on Currencies

• In September, the dollar maintained a bearish bias amid expectations of rate cuts, favoring moderate gains in the euro and pound, while the yen remained lagging due to the lack of monetary normalization. The USD/COP trended lower this month, supported by competitive rate spreads, forward curve compression, and stable oil prices, although its performance remains influenced by local politics and idiosyncratic risks.

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| Hector Wilson Tovar Garcia: Research Manager – wtovar@accivalores.com

| Maria Alejandra Martinez Botero: Research Director – maria.martinez@accivalores.com

| Laura Sophia Fajardo Rojas: IE Analyst - Laura Fajardo@accivalores.com

| Maria Lorena Moreno: IE Analyst – maria.moreno@accivalores.com

| Hugo Camilo Beltran: IE Analyst – hugo.beltran@accivalores.com

| Sara Sofia Guzmán Suárez: Intern – sara.guzman@accivalores.com