Weekly Market Outlook – October 06-10, 2025

Weekly Macroeconomic Outlook

• The global outlook reflects an environment of increasing economic fragility and heightened political uncertainty. Major economies face a combination of sluggish momentum, resilient inflation, and limited scope for monetary tightening, which continues to pressure growth prospects. In Asia, stimulus measures in China and the expansionary shift in Japan are seeking to sustain activity, while emerging markets are showing relative resilience despite fiscal and price challenges.

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Fixed Income Weekly Outlook

• Fixed-income markets are showing a stability bias and narrow ranges, in an environment dominated by the monetary pause in developed markets, policy divergence in emerging markets, and attention to fiscal and inflationary risks in Colombia, where the CPI data could determine the tone of the curve and the appetite for duration.

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Weekly Equity Outlook

• The S&P 500 closed the week up 1.09%, reaching 6,715.8 points. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% and 1.10%, respectively. In the local market, the MSCI Colcap closed last week with a 0.12% correction, standing at 1,861.3. Looking ahead to this week, the Colcap is expected to trade between 1,845 and 1,880 points, with a low probability of breaking above its current resistance levels, without any additional catalysts.

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Weekly Forex Outlook

• The dollar's recent strength is primarily due to temporary political factors, rather than structural improvements in its fundamentals. In a context where markets are pricing in additional cuts by the Federal Reserve and a greater global orientation toward expansionary monetary policies, a gradual moderation of the currency is expected. This environment favors the relative stability of emerging currencies, supported by solid fundamentals and consistent economic policy frameworks.

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| Hector Wilson Tovar Garcia: Research Manager – wtovar@accivalores.com

| Maria Alejandra Martinez Botero: Research Director – maria.martinez@accivalores.com

| Laura Sophia Fajardo Rojas: IE Analyst - Laura Fajardo@accivalores.com

| Maria Lorena Moreno: IE Analyst - Maria Moreno@accivalores.com

| Sara Sofia Guzmán Suárez: Intern – sara.guzman@accivalores.com