Weekly Market Outlook – February 09-13, 2026

Weekly Macroeconomic Outlook

• In the US, both the CPI and the NFP will act as the main catalysts of the week, as they will help define expectations regarding growth, inflation, and especially the Fed's future strategy for the remainder of 2026. In Colombia, the market awaits the publication of the Financial Plan and the release of economic activity figures.

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Fixed Income Weekly Outlook

• Fixed income operates in an environment of high rates and a fragile balance between inflation, monetary policy and fiscal risk, where the short term remains conditioned by data and carry, while the medium and long terms concentrate the greatest sensitivity to term premium, supply and sovereign perception.

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Weekly Equity Outlook

• The MSCI Colcap closed down 4.23% for the week, bringing the index to 2,370.1 points and deepening its downward trend. This reduced the year-to-date gain from a high of 21.9% in January to 14.6% at the close of the previous week. Despite this short-term correction, the fundamental outlook for 2026 remains supported by expectations of strong corporate earnings from major local companies, a dividend yield above the regional average, and the global appeal of emerging markets.

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Weekly Forex Outlook

• With a dollar lacking directional traction and stable local fundamentals, the USD/COP maintains a range-bound behavior: the carry continues to anchor the peso, but the volatility premium, persistent public sector flows, and the seasonality of February limit sustained appreciations and leave an asymmetry in favor of faster upward corrections.

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| Hector Wilson Tovar Garcia: Research Manager – wtovar@accivalores.com

| Maria Alejandra Martinez Botero: Research Director – maria.martinez@accivalores.com

| Laura Sophia Fajardo Rojas: IE Analyst - Laura Fajardo@accivalores.com

| Hugo Camilo Beltran Gomez: IE Analyst – hugo.beltran@accivalores.com

| Lyhz Valentina Tovar Rodriguez: Intern – lyhz.tovar@accivalores.com