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Weekly Market Outlook – April 14-18, 2025

Weekly Macroeconomic Outlook

  • The macroeconomic narrative of the markets in the third week of April 2025 is shaped by three interrelated axes: moderate disinflation, global trade tensions, and adjustments in monetary policy expectations.

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Fixed Income Weekly Outlook

  • Fixed-income markets experienced a week of marked volatility, reflecting deteriorating investor confidence, driven primarily by growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic and fiscal policy.

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Weekly Equity Outlook

  • Following President Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on some tariffs, the market reacted with sharp gains, although the increase in taxes on China and its retaliation brought back uncertainty about global growth in 2025. Amid this backdrop, the earnings season got off to a strong start: JP Morgan exceeded market expectations thanks to a rebound in asset management and investment banking fees.

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Weekly Forex Outlook:

  • A relatively short week has begun in Colombia, but with a more optimistic outlook for the Colombian peso. Last week, the currency managed to recover some of its year-to-date losses, recording a 2.95% appreciation in 2024.

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| Global Disclaimer
We believe that every investor should diversify their investments across a variety of asset classes, in any market environment or trend, and should work closely with their financial advisor on an ongoing basis to ensure that their portfolio is properly structured and that their financial plan supports their long-term goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. However, diversification does not guarantee profits or protect against losses. The information above, as well as the companies and/or individual securities mentioned, do not constitute a professional recommendation to make investments under the terms of article 2.40.1.1.2 of Decree 2555 of 2010, nor an indication of the intention to market on behalf of Acciones & Valores S.A. any of the products that it manages in any way. The forecasts shared were constructed from assumptions subject to different market conditions, so the conclusions presented, as well as the analyses that accompany them, are not definitive. This document is for informational purposes only and should not be distributed, copied, sold or altered without the express authorization of the company. Acciones & Valores SA is not responsible for the interpretation of said information, since it does not include all the aspects that an investor might consider necessary or desirable to analyze his or her decision to participate in a transaction, since it is presented in an abbreviated form. For the purposes of total and absolute precision, in addition to considering their risk profile, investors must consult all documents provided through the website, as well as by the relevant entities. Likewise, investors must carry out, at their own expense, the financial and legal analysis in order to make any investment decision. The values ​​and figures contained herein are obtained from market sources presumed to be reliable, such as Bloomberg, Reuters and the Issuers. The ratings given in the report should not be considered as investment recommendations nor as substitutes for the ratings given by certified credit agencies such as Moody's, Fitch or Standard & Poor's; these ratings are purely quantitative, do not include qualitative factors and depend on the financial information available in the market at the time of preparation. The opinions, estimates and projections in this report reflect the author's current judgment as of the date of the report, and it is noted that the content of the information contained herein may be subject to change without notice. The authors' remuneration is not associated with the results of the report or the recommendations made. The presentation and any preliminary documents on the products mentioned herein do not constitute a binding public offer, therefore, both the presentation and any other documents may be supplemented or corrected. © 2025 Shares & Values ​​SA
| Hector Wilson Tovar Garcia: Research Manager – wtovar@accivalores.com
| Maria Alejandra Martinez Botero: Research Director – maria.martinez@accivalores.com
| Jahnisi Arley Caceres Gomez: IE Analyst – jahnisi.caceres@accivalores.com
| Laura Sophia Fajardo Rojas: IE Analyst - Laura Fajardo@accivalores.com
| Maria Lorena Moreno: Intern – maria.moreno@accivalores.com

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Inflation and exchange rate: Inflation surprises and resumes upward pressure: How does the TRM interpret it?

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