Weekly Macroeconomic Outlook
- This week's fundamentals will be dominated by expectations for the Fed's September policy, with the market assessing the persistence of inflationary pressures in the face of still-resilient consumer spending, while growth data and tariff dynamics will continue to highlight divergences between developed and emerging economies.
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Fixed Income Weekly Outlook
- Fixed-income markets are starting the week with core curves in narrow ranges and expectations for the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting, while in emerging markets, the differentiation between Latin America, driven by fiscal risks, and Asia, supported by gradual stimulus, persists. In Colombia, attention is focused on debt swaps and management as the key drivers of the curve's dynamics.
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Weekly Equity Outlook
- Global equities begin the week holding relatively stable levels, awaiting signals regarding the Fed's next interest rate decision. Corporate earnings from major U.S. retailers such as Home Depot and Walmart are also expected, which could provide insight into the dynamism of private consumption. In Colombia, the Colcap index remains above 1,850 points, following positive reports from key issuers such as Cibest, Aval, and Sura.
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Weekly Forex Outlook:
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The Colombian peso maintains an appreciation bias thanks to the attractiveness of carry and the expectation of Fed cuts, reinforced by the monetary discipline of BanRep; however, fiscal deterioration raises the risk premium and limits the margin for appreciation, leaving the COP dependent on both US policy signals and local prudence to sustain inflationary convergence.
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